Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis » (1st Edition)

This book explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis.

Preface;
1. Introduction;
2. Recent milestones;
3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis;
4. The nature and sources of uncertainty;
5. Probability distributions and statistical estimation;
6. Human judgement about and with uncertainty;
7. Performing probability assessment;
8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty;
9. The graphic communication of uncertainty;
10. Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis;
11. Large and complex models;
12. The value of knowing how little you know; Index.