Introduction To Intelligence Research And Analysis » (Revised)

Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on United States soil, the intelligence community has been scrutinized on how it performs its functions. Consequently, the 9/11 Commission made several recommendations on how to improve the quality of intelligence analysis. Those charges and the United States' involvement in a war in Iraq have spawned additional charges of the politicization of intelligence. All this is being played out as the Intelligence Community has reformed and reconfigured itself with newly created departments supported by an expanded and inexperienced workforce that was never envisioned when the intelligence community was formally established in 1947.

Introduction Jan Goldman Goldman, Jan

1 The Evolution and Definition of Strategic Intelligence 1

2 Research: A Description of the Activity and the Analyst 17

3 Types of Inquiry and the Nature of Proof 38

4 The Relation of Induction and Deduction to Theory Building in Intelligence Research 51

5 Planning the Research Program: Problem Definition 58

6 Planning the Research Program: Locating Information 69

7 Foundations of Analysis: Some Basic Concepts 79

8 Classification: A Basic Step in Analysis 93

9 Basic Quantitative Techniques for Research and Analysis 105

10 Descriptive Analysis Methodologies 129

11 Prediction, Forecasting, and Haruspicy 164

12 Preparing the Report 197

13 An Example of a Small-Scale Intelligence Study 207

Index 217