Failing The Crystal Ball Test »

OFIRA SELIKTAR is Associate Professor of Political Science at Gratz College in Pennsylvania.

Offers a systematic analysis of predictive failure in one of Americas greatest foreign policy debacles.

Preface

Introduction: The Theory and Practice of Predicting Political Change

Theories of Political Change and Predictions of Change

Paradigmatic Views of Political Change: Developmentalism vs. Dependency

Road Testing New Internationalism: The Iran Policy of the Carter Administration

In the Eye of the Storm: The Carter Administration and the Iranian Revolution

Dealing with Chaos: The Carter Administration and the Successor Regime in Iran

Conclusion: Reflections on Predictive Failures