A Global Perspective on Real Estate Cycles »

The real estate industry has been severely affected by recent developments in international capital markets. There has been a decline in real estate investment trust (REIT) share prices, and a decline in capital available for real estate ventures. These setbacks have coincided with serious financial problems of very large hedge funds and other institutional investors in the market for commercial mortgage-backed securities.
This volume collects the revised papers first presented at a conference hosted by New York University's Salomon Center on the impact of globalization on real estate business cycles. To this end, the conference offered new insights into the implications of U.S. and global real estate cycles on real estate securities including REITs and mortgage-backed securities as well as direct real estate investment. The most important insight is that the amplitude and frequency of the cycles differ from place to place and time to time. To the extent that this implies that real estate markets around the world are not yet fully integrated, there are opportunities for global investors. There are also risks; the markets are becoming more correlated, most particularly in periods of crisis. Indeed, the relative immaturity of the Thai real estate market contributed significantly to the extent and severity of the Asian financial crisis of 1997. To exploit these opportunities and to manage the resulting risk, portfolio managers need to develop new data sources and empirical procedures designed to maximize the information content of the data that is available. The lack of high quality data emerges as the central and most pressing issue, not only from a portfolio management context, but also from the standpoint of public policy.