7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century »

Andrew Krepinevich is president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, an independent policy research institute, and a distinguished visiting professor at George Mason University’s School of Public Policy. He has served as a consultant on military affairs for many senior government officials and members of Congress. A West Point graduate, Krepinevich served as a U.S. Army officer for twenty-one years and holds an M.P.A. and a Ph.D. from Harvard University. He has lectured widely before professional and academic audiences at Harvard, Princeton, Yale, the Army and Naval War Colleges, the Air University, Europe’s Marshall Center, and France’s École Militaire, among others. He has testified on numerous occasions before Congress, and his work has appeared in such publications as the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, and Foreign Affairs.

A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the U.S. border.
Major U.S. cities are leveled by black-market nukes.
China’s growing civil unrest ignites a global showdown.
Pakistan’s collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weapons.

What if the worst that could happen actually happens? How would we respond? Are we ready?

These are the questions that Andrew Krepinevich asks—and answers—in this timely and often chilling new book, which describes the changing face of war in the twenty-first century and identifies seven deadly scenarios that threaten our security in the crucial years ahead. As president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and consultant to secretaries of defense, the CIA, the Homeland Security Council and the Joint Forces Command, Krepinevich’s job is to think the unthinkable—and prepare a response in the event our worst nightmares become reality.

Basing his analysis on open intelligence sources, an assessment of the latest global and political trends, and his knowledge of contemporary military history, Krepinevich starts each of the seven scenarios in the context of current geopolitical realities and vividly tracks the path to crisis. From the implosion of Pakistan to a worldwide cyberattack, from the consequences of a timed withdrawal from Iraq to the likelihood of a China on the march, Krepinevich reveals the forces—both overt and covert—that are in play; the ambitions of world powers, terrorist groups, and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both our enemies and our allies can be expected to take.

As riveting as a thriller, 7 Deadly Scenarios takes you inside the corridors of power, peers into the world of defense planning, and explores U.S. military and political strategy in the past, present, and likely future. The result is a must-read book that will trigger discussion, thought, and—hopefully—action.

Introduction A Glimpse of the Future 1

Ch. 1 The Collapse of Pakistan 30

Ch. 2 War Comes to America 63

Ch. 3 Pandemic 91

Ch. 4 Armageddon: The Assault on Israel 125

Ch. 5 China's "Assassin's Mace" 169

Ch. 6 Just Not-on-Time: The War on the Global Economy 210

Ch. 7 Who Lost Iraq? 246

Conclusion: Lighting the Path Ahead 285

Acknowledgments 319

Index 321